A Visual Guide to Inflation

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Inflation. It’s bad right? When prices rise your money is worth less and nobody wants to see their hard earned cash decline in value. But what is inflation anyway and what are its root causes? Turns out the situation is not as straightforward as it first appears. In this first of a two-part series we take a look at inflation and examine the pros and cons of this important barometer of the health of the US economy. Stay tuned for part two next week where we look at inflation’s alter ego, deflation. We look forward to your feedback and comments below.
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1 2 Next »Very nice! I look forward to the next guide on deflation.
Thanks!
I lived in a country where inflation was about %40 now it is %10, and no one come up and explain it in a visual way. I hope nobody live inflation. It is good to explain it.
This is a great visual!
However, I think it short-changed the gold standard. It would be nice to explain to people what it is and why some believe we should return to it.
For those interested, check out this article from the Ludwig von Mises Institute to read an argument for the gold standard – even if you disagree in the end, it’s time to admit there are alternative ways of doing it. Perhaps our monetary system isn’t the best design out there or perhaps it is, either way it’s time we debate that.
http://mises.org/rothbard/genuine.asp
Wow this is one of the best visually and straight forward blog posts i have seen in a long time. This is creatively stunning while giving ton’s of information. I am sure many people will learn quite a bit from here.
I would really like to add a big “Thanks!”
Regards,
Kenny
Seems like a load of crap. Inflation, in the long term, is purely set by monetary policy. How much money we create determines how much there is to go around. If there’s 1 billion dollars in the economy, people will have $3 each. If there is one trillion in the economy, people will have $3,000 each. If there is one quadrillion dollars, people will have $3,000,000 each, on average. To a first-order, that determines prices and salaries. If I have $3,000,000 in the bank, I won’t work for $20,000/year. If I have $3, I’ll gladly work for $3/month.
Love these visual guides!
Btw, shouldn’t the one example say “inflation paid $3 of your debt”? (Because without it, you’d owe $102-worth rather than $99-worth.)
lol that was awesome!
Notice the not-so-deceptive manner in which Built-in Inflation is construed. What’s truly “built-in” is a prejudice against a very large portion of the population, that is, the “worker”.
Note first the dubious distinction between “worker” and “consumer”. The worker is the consumer, to a very great extent.
Next, consider that workers have a long, long history of being underpaid. This isn’t really debatable, if you’re familiar with history. So, a worker demand for higher wages does not necessarily correspond with a preemptive need to curb inflation. Even without inflation, a vast majority of the population has reason to want a raise.
Now, let’s evaluate the employer’s “self evident” need to “pass on” higher wage costs to the “consumer”. Remembering that the consumer is in fact the worker, we see that, with higher wages, worker-consumers will be able to consume more, creating a greater demand, therefore higher prices.
We see, then, that built-in inflation appears highly related to demand-pull inflation. Except, demand-pull inflation is portrayed as “good” — “the economy is good” — whereas “built-in” inflation is suspicious, “bad”.
Economics is actually pretty fun, if you approach it from the perspective of revealing its creators’ “built-in” prejudices. The underlying prejudice I have outlined here is arguably against workers’ unions, although, notably, unions are never mentioned specifically. This understanding is reflected in the popular-though-largely-untested perception that unions “hurt the economy”.
Very nice guide and well illustrated. Although I would’ve liked a more thorough explanation of the gold standard. The calls from Russia and China for a partly gold-weighted reserve currency is getting louder every day.
Also, since this isn’t a photograph, don’t use JPEG compression. That’s why you have artifacts around the edges of the letters. For graphics, use PNG or GIF.
Great article on how inflation occurs.
I always appreciate these visual guides. Even when I already know things about whatever topic is being discussed, I always end up with a better understanding overall. Thanks, and keep it up!
Returning to the spectrum in the middle, isn’t the United States experiencing both high unemployment and high prices? Where does that mean we lie on the spectrum of too little / too much inflation?
Don’t the “bailouts” amount to creating money, associating them with patterns that lead to hyperinflation? Or does that money simply diverted from other funds in the federal budget?
P.S. I’m loving the Socratic dialogue approach used in these explanations.
@facebook yes the conversational dialogue works very well. I would love to see politicians try to explain finance this clearly.
“…caused by an increase in the volume of money…” Demand-pull, cost-push, and built-in inflation do not increase the volume of money. The may effect price, but they do not effect inflation. Inflation is the devaluing of money and it is purposefully built into our economy.
By design it punishes savings and rewards debt. When you say that “a little inflation is good” what you mean is that if people can never keep up and are encouraged to go into debt and become slaves to their job, the economy grows. The kensyians of the world believe that inflation is “good” at a macro level but you should consider the micro a little closer.
I also think this article is dismissive of the gold (or any) standard. The USA was a gold standard economy, the need to fund govt and war through debt had us leave that standard and because of that today your hard-earned savings is robbed at 3+% a year
I love how all of a sudden everyone is an expert on the economy and monetary policy………
One of the best blog posts I have ever seen!
Thanks for that refresher
Inflation is caused by monetary policy. The fed has pumped new cash into our monetary system. There was 800 Billion and now 1.75 trillion provided by the FED just this year.
This in turn is loaned out to consumer as debt and can be multiplied many more times over because of the reserve ratio of only a fractional amount in the bank. So now 1.75 Trillion becomes 9 times more. So we are now being flooded with new currency backed by nothing of value. Causing major inflation. Perhaps hyper-inflation.
The money in your bank is getting more worthless by the day. The scary part is the money is not created from savings or from other assets of any kind. The Fed makes the money out of thin air and exchanges it with the treasury for t-bills debt. Yes your money creation process creates debt to US treasury that is then sold to foreign countries. The foreign countries deposit these T-bills as reserves in their banks thinking they have an asset that is gaining value from the interest on the T-bill but in reality since inflation is lowering the value of the dollar this investment is losing value.
Gold and other precious metals may be the only thing retaining any value as you see it costs more and more dollars to buy gold. This does not mean the price of gold is going up, it means that dollar is losing value.
Found this on Digg.com. Awesome explanation.
Excellent visual representation of this abstract concept. We are in a period of deflation, which began June 2008. http://tiny.cc/sbRfz I hope your deflation graphic will point out that deflation is good for consumers. Prices go down. Everything we buy becomes cheaper, including houses, loans, cars.
To think ‘just a few percent’ inflation is good is short-sighted. It means a life savings is cut in half during a career. Inflation is the great ‘hidden tax’, as your graphic points out so clearly.
I’ve ALWAYS been an expert on monetary and fiscal policy, and the USA is headed for Germany 1932 style inflation. People were buying loaves of bread with wheelbarrows full of banknotes. lol.
Interesting, but no explanation of fiat currencies vs. gold (or other real-value commodity) backed currencies.
The causes of the current economic crisis from the Austrian economic theory perspective:
— no gold standard
— fiat money can be created from nothing by governments
— inflation is a tax politicians love
because they don’t have to vote for it
— governments can also manipulate interest rates
— low interest rates make borrowing attractive, rather than saving
— increased debt and leveraging creates speculative bubbles
— the bubbles pop
— instead of taking the bitter medicine, politicians pump
yet more fiat money into the system, and
lower interest rates
— which only postpones the problem, because eventually
— the entire system based on debt and
leveraged speculation collapses
— and desperate actions taken by the government
at this late stage don’t work.
All fiat currencies in history have failed. They are too vulnerable to politics.
Austrian economic theory:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_economics
The Federal Reserve is a Privately owned bank.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-1656880303867390173
Chris Rowzee doesn’t know what he’s talking about.
Considering that the experts haven’t been able to explain crisis upon crisis, and have a great potential to have vested interests like our Wall Street comrades, it seems important for everyone to review their economic presumptions. Mainstream economics is nothing if not presumptive.
Assume first a conclusion that suits your socio-demographic needs, and then find the best fit, whether it’s monetarism, neoliberalism, neo-Ricardianism, etc. etc. … so-called “bastard Keynesianism” of the 1970s to the present is a perfect example of economists “reverting” back to classical presumptions.
How many people in the Senate, do you think have actually read Keynes? Maybe 20%.
Dig it?
Zwief and Mikeee want a bit more elaboration about the gold standard. The gold standard limits the value of currency to the value of a limited commodity, gold. There is actually quite a small amount of gold on Eath. Its rarity and inertness (to chemical reaction and decomposition) make it both a stable currency and element. Countries should not issue more currency than would be required to purchase the gold maintained in its reserves.
In theory, tying the value of a country’s currency to the gold standard would act as a balance to counteract governments printing money to buy stuff it cannot afford. In practice, if governments run into a serious problem with this, they either drop the gold standard, or simply lie about their reserves.
One of the biggest drawbacks to using the gold standard is its mass. It is actually wasteful of time and energy to transport heavy gold around. This makes international trade difficult. Trade deficits would require the transportation of a metal between countries. Of course this rarely occurs. Transfer of gold between governments usually occurs via theft or conquest, each undesirable in its own right.
[Some conspiracy theorists think the US is falsifying its gold reserves. They think that the US government sold off much if its gold after it went off the gold standard. I do believe the US government is lying, but I think the government is understating its gold reserves. Not because it has sold off most of its reserves, but because of the questionable provenance of the reserves it does have.]
The gold standard also makes it difficult to value intangible goods. It is simple math to calculate the ratio of the relative scarcity of gold to the scarcity of some other physical commodity such as wheat, iron, or salt. (Again “relative scarcity” of some commodities varies by geographic region.) Historically, commodity-based currency valuation has depressed the prices of non-tangible goods and services, creating a huge divide between the upper and lower classes. Separating the value of labor and services from the gold standard allowed the rise of the middle class in America.
Abandoning the gold standard has another whole set of problems. Hyperinflation is the most notable. Hyperinflation happened in post-WWII Germany when the allies took the Nazi gold reserves. Hyperinflation has now brought Zimbabwe to economic collapse.
Try these google searches:
First National Bank of Montgomery vs. Jerome Daly
http://www.lawlibrary.state.mn.us/CreditRiver/CreditRiver.html
Council on Foreign Relations
Trilateral Commissions
Bilderberg Group
Zbigniew Brzezinski
David Rockefeller
Rothchild Family
OPERATION NORTHWOODS
That was a brilliantly done graphic! Solid financial information. Now if our politicians actually understood it we’d be in MUCH better shape.
Joe –
While I like your demonstration of how to find hidden prejudices, maybe I can clear some things up for you.
When an economist uses terms like “worker”, “consumer”, “banker”, “investor” etc, they don’t mean individual people. Any one person acts in multiple roles throughout the day, sometimes in several roles at once. For instance, when you buy a car, you are simultaneously a consumer and an investor (assuming you expect to sell the car later, or use it to increase your earning power by driving to work).
So the examples aren’t about oppressing particular groups of people, since as you point out, “workers” are also “consumers” (they’re also “investors”, and “bankers”). It’s just a simple way of demonstrating 2 ways to arrive at a rising price: either demand outpaces supply so price goes up, or available money goes up so price goes up.
And by the way, the fact that employers pass on wage increases to the consumer isn’t about whether it’s necessary, any more than the fact that workers sometimes ask for raises because they’re worried about inflation. Economics isn’t concerned with whether they’re justified in those wage/price changes, only that they often happen that way, and that causes inflation.
Uh, when do we talk about the fact that the FED is not a government entity, but twelve regional privately-owned Federal Reserve Banks that have no accountability to the American government? And we are not printing money as a nation, but borrowing it from the printer (FED) with interest? WTF?
under gold we had very very slow deflation. why is 2% inflation better than this? why is 2% better than 0?
The “underlying prejudice” is not “against workers’ unions”, but rather it’s stating a fact about unions having monopolies on labor. If unions weren’t allowed to have monopolies just like corporations can’t, competing unions (and/or single workers) would be a great benefit to the economy and they wouldn’t affect inflation.
mgroves: Complaining about labor unions as monopolies is a mistake that would be easier to spot if, for instance, Starbucks cried foul when coffee farmers started selling their beans through collectives. Employers are inherently monopolies, they are just hard to notice. If BigCo is negotiating wages collectively with BigCo’s Union, the union can only be a monopoly in the same way the company always was; the union may have a monopoly on the labor available at that workplace, but the employer necessarily has a monopoly on the jobs available at that workplace. Because the employer’s monopoly is unavoidable, it is easy to miss, but unionizing can only – at most – even out the scales in that negotiation.
This is complete bullshit people. Inflation is not a freely flowing consequence of the market, it is a deliberate attempt at redistributing wealth from those who SAVE to those with DEBT, and NO ONE is more in debt than the Federal Gov’t ($10+ Trillion and counting). The Fed Reserve prints money and gives to the US Treasury to dole out or buy things, lowering the amount you have saved AND that you are paid for labor. This makes MOST people poorer.
LOL @ Facebook User for “Don’t the “bailouts” amount to creating money, associating them with patterns that lead to hyperinflation? Or does that money simply diverted from other funds in the federal budget?” — Yeah right, a politician would EVER cut/divert spending! No, bailouts and “stimulus” spending is extra, like the extra $1Trillion we are spending in Iraq and Afghanistan and maintaining the US Empire around the world (in addition to the $1/2Trillion already allocated to defense in the budget).
u guys rock!!!
Nice guide, quite entertaining while educating
I’m no expert by any means, but a couple of things…
The government doesn’t print money or set monetary policy, the Federal Reserve does – it’s not a government agency, but a private “business” which was given the power by our government to print the worthless paper bills we call federal reserve notes, and our government enforces/polices it’s use in our economy.
This article seems to look at inflation as an inevitability, and something that could be a good thing, if everything works correctly… when in reality it’s completely unnecessary and a BAD thing. It’s DIRECTLY CAUSED by fractional-reserve banking (which is seriously bad and should be illegal IMO) and is the type of financial system our government has so kindly forced us to use since ~1913 I think. Read about fractional-reserve banking sometime… you won’t believe it.
It was a matter of time before the whole system collapsed… and guess where we are now…?
A fun fact… although there are always natural ups and downs, the value of the dollar has decreased by ~96% since the Federal Reserve came in to being, and continues to drop. It’s devaluation is directly proportional to the massive amounts of paper money they consistently create from thin air and inject into our financial system.
Bottom line… we’re all in trouble.
Great work!
wow thanks for sharing that, i always knew the dinosaurs had something to do with inflation
i love this website!
Inflation is never good. Inflation destroys wealth by taking predominately from the poor to give to the rich.
Inflation, the government’s best tool to combat deficit spending.
Silly question
In your example you show a $100 loan from the bank at a fixed interest rate of 2% (and presumably from the math there is a 3% inflation rate).
Who in their right mind will loan money out at less than inflation? People wouldn’t do that since they would lose money.
Missed this post but just saw it after the deflationary one as well. Wanted to take the opportunity to get people’s take on theoretical invesments. We had taken a look at the various investment scenarios when in both a deflationary and inflationary environment. would love everyone’s take on what we’ve laid out: http://www.marketfolly.com/2008/08/investment-scenarios-inflation-vs.html
Arguments for, or against any of the theoretical portfolios?
Awesome visual! Kudos!
Keynesian nonsense. Inflation isn’t always bad? Leave it to mainstream economists to always find a way to shill for the government.
Another visual guide to inflation:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rq0Ez7DZSnI
Funny how the Yankee fools see the original government propaganda from their high school texts, and scoop it up, whole turd at a time, swallow it with great ease and take greater comfort in their proletarian poverty and debt in the dark, all the while, certain that somebody understands, there is reason, and Anarchy does not reign! If all this bullshit were even based in truth, nobody in America would go hungry, need drugs to be happy, have only a tent to live in, have mortgages that rape them, live in concrete jungles like caged animals, watch planned obsolescence eat their life’s savings! Bull shit! The system is rigged, the Uber-rich eat our souls for breakfast, and we toil in their factories and mines for stale crumbs on our tables, and they despise us and denigrate us for our humanity and compassion as they slam down shyster rules limiting our very existence!Walk through modern day Detroit City and show me how this well propagandized nonsense works!
genius ideas
great way to learn commercial iterms
Very nice!
I spent my 15 minutes here, and it’s a great experience!
If it was plain text, I wouldn’t have read it!
Really thankful for your effort. Now i understand what’s it!
This is awesome! A great visual reference for how inflation works. Well done with the graphics and colors!
Mint is so off the cool list for this BS. “Sweet Spot” ? WTF? But, I guess if you told the truth, someone might have to have a talk with you *ahem*.
Sorry, I stopped reading after the first major mistake I found. It is at the top, when you show that a return of 4% during a 3% inflationary period will yield you a positive return. It won’t. You see, there will be taxes. Income taxes. And a tax of 25% will leave you with no gain. For most people who have money to put aside like this, the combined rate of tax will often leave them with a negative return. Nearly all “safety of principle” vehicles, like savings accounts, cds, and money market funds, are guaranteed losses. Between price inflation and taxes, they will loose purchasing power every year.
It is true that to borrow during inflation is considered a good idea. Loan your government money.